Trump's only chance to win Reelection

(Opinion Piece)
While it is surprised many that Trump became the president with hindsight it is apparent why. Trump's tactic of saying grandiose things to be in the media combined with comments like calling his supported "deplorable" created a sense of being an underdog for some people. This also created unity not only with Trump's base but with others who have been felt they have been ignored by the Obama Status quo. This region in the central and southern united states and the rust belt sided with Trump making his victory possible. I have doubts about whether this could occur this election.

Trump has very much lost steam. Believe it or not, he has become tamer and in a sense "moderate" then he was at the beginning of his presidency and at during the election. While this would not be a problem for normal candidates, President Trump is very reliant on the drama and turmoil to create attention and support. This has made many Democrats very hopeful but with this hope comes cracks that need to be addressed to beat Trump in the next election. If the crack is ignored it will ensure another victory to President Trump.

The Democratic Party was flooded with candidates while making things more interesting it is not a great thing for the party as a whole. With so many candidates come conflict of interest and division in the Democrat base as time moves forward. This combined with the factional elemets in the current democratic party (Old Guard VS New Guard) and it sets up a storm for internal conflict. While this is bad for the Democrats it is not groundbreaking. The Republican is also becoming more and more factionalized but the Democratic parties division is early becoming more and more visible.

Now even with the factional elements the Democrats still should have the upper hand. There is an overwhelming feeling among Democrats to get a new president and elections generally favor the more aggressive motivated base and the Democrats are very much on the attack. This is a massive plus to any candidate who wins the Democrat primaries but in my opinion which will determine the election is who the Democrats choose as their candidate.

If the Democrats choose someone "moderate" such as Biden or someone who is viewed as reasonable like Andrew Yang; Trump would most likely lose. If the Democrats someone like Bernie...that is a game changer. I am not here to attack the views of any of the candidates but Bernie to many is viewed as a Radical and a Communist (He is not though he is a Democratic Socialist we all know that's how some will perceive him) A candidate like Bernie is great for Trump because it gives him something to attack. It also reinvigorates his base which has grown more relaxed and weak.  Making America choose between these two would end up looking very much like the 2016 election in many peoples minds. Whos Worse? Unlike 2016 Trump is a sitting president and has his accomplishments to show off. Love him or Hate him he has followed through on a majority of his political promises and is running for reelection with a strong American economy. Change and new things to Americans can be a very scary thing and if that change is viewed as radical it makes a status quo vote much more appealing. That, of course, is my interpretation and speculation.

What do you think will happen in the next election?